Covid-19: Second Chapter
With knowledge, acceptance, adaptation, hope, and uncertainty, humanity begins the second chapter in the history of this 2020, and its Pandemic Lockdown-Recession lessons.
The world exceeds one million deaths from Covid-19, with an unprecedented cost for the entire economic system (only compared with The Great Depression) that never countervail with have many lost due to the absence of those who will never go to return. ‘Not everything in life it’s about money’; business leaders and millionaires always know how to say.
Of course, nobody is unaware that there are diseases with higher mortality rates, and socioeconomic consequences of the process also involve deaths from hunger, depression, access to the health system, or human error; the difference, in this case, will always be ignorance.
However, after more than eight months, people know much more about it; according to The Imperial College, to date, 23,500 academic essays have been written about the pandemic, all reaching the same conclusions also confirmed by the CDC, soap brands, and TikTokers.
You have to wash your hands, maintain social distancing, and of course, the controversial mask: the axis of discussion, semiological representation of the existence -and resistance- of human weakness, which today visibly divides the social, economic, and cultural position of each person regarding the pandemic.
A simple object that, tacitly and delicately, differentiates and confronts rebels and disciplined, affluents with lackers, ‘warm’ and ‘cold’ heartened, closed with distant feelings, and of course, political parties are managing it to be essential in their communication strategy, even outside the United States.
In the meantime, the New England Journal of Medicine and Cambridge University have confirmed that the best way to prevent a more substantial peak during an upcoming second wave of the pandemic will involve that all of us wear masks throughout the day, even inside your house.
A controversial proposal, although grounded in history. The little existing evidence (compared with the over excess of current data) confirms that second waves of these pandemics are usually worst due to the worsening of asymptomatic patients, climate conditions (winter), and closed spaces.
Others, such as vaccine developers and universities like Oxford, Harvard, and again The Imperial College, claims that, compared to the impact of the 1918-19 Spanish flu, apparently the physical and mental intensity lived during the first wave of Covid-19 will be able to make the second one not follow the historical pattern of its last century predecessor.
Comparing the number of the world inhabitants at that time (1918) and today, the 40 million deaths generated by the Spanish fly 2020 will become 150 million, with most of the experts’ calculations going around a two million life cost at the expected end of Covid-19.
Also, in 1918 the estimated infected rate reached one-third of the world’s population, and at least in the case of the United States during that year, the economic contraction was 2%. Simultaneously, Euromonitor Economic Covid-19 Forecast Scenarios shows that the current pandemic will reach around 15% of people, with 7% of global economic contraction.
So efforts then have been worth it… from the philosophical (not physical) relativity, it’s possible to confirm that every lockdown and recession effort made by each person has saved a certain number of lives, indeterminate and derivative, but also real because all those whom you consider in your heart, eventually, remain by your side. From there, it sounds like a huge profit.
There is also a new tone in the conversation, where the vaccine could evolve from being an illusion, and the vaccination process, with the socioeconomic differences that imply, will center controversies. The government’s role migrates towards initiatives and communications strategies where a massive ‘ask for calm ‘will be daily and repetitive.
An existence with distancing and in-house lifestyle as central rules adapts day by day, while corporations, independent, and small businesses adapt their reality to this moment, and experts predict a recovery where global GDP will go from -7 to + 5 … TWELVE points in a single year.
Hope prevails… While Covid-19 first chapter was about confinement, this one will be about recovery, always without forgetting that awareness about preventing, care, and save each person, business, and economy, is critical. If a new chapter implies a behavioral return, what has done will not have been worth it, and this distancing year was wasted.
Beyond a position of fear, suspicion, anger, or respect, it’s clear that the pandemic exists. Without a bullet-proof solution, the second chapter of this story’s success will be in raising awareness of this fact, achieving as a community to give continuity to all the learned lessons.