Nietzsche was right: history tends to repeat itself… and this time humanity has been fighting to overcome a pandemic since 2020 -again-, today ‘replaced’ in the pages of history by the tectonic movement of the world order, where the Ukrainians they suffer the consequences of being territorially, economically, and culturally sandwiched between a futuristic West and a Russia led by someone who ‘seems’ to seek to return to Stalin’s premises.

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I say ‘it seems’ because on the many occasions that I have visited Moscow (and chatted with great local friends, talking about the evolution of retail, insights from China, or the discipline of Stravinsky) I have confirmed a relevant group of Russians who believe and live the prosperity of capitalism, they understand that their government invades a weaker country, they felt the forceful impact in their pockets, they packed up and got on the first train from St. Petersburg to Helsinki without a return ticket.

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Compared to Latin America, Russians of all economic levels (from Oligarchs to ordinary citizens) experienced the famous Argentine ‘Corralito’ of 2001: in 48 hours they lost a third of their life savings, income, and assets, in addition to of closing the banking, transactional doors and the departure of the great mass consumers of the country, a fact that leaves a strong psychological impact on locals of all ages, returning them to Soviet ostracism.

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An example: in 1991 with the departure of communism, the first two FMCG’s that set foot on Russian lands were Coca-Cola and IKEA, both with special symbology: the first represented the ‘welcome’ to globalization, and the second the European style. . With the good and bad they brought, they managed to be part of something bigger than the ancestrally overprotective ‘Mother’ (Russia) and ‘Father’ (Communism). Today both left the country.

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The exit of Russia from the global system brings a new economic slowdown, which will translate into smaller developed markets (Europe, the United States, Japan, etc.) and with a smaller budget when it comes to importing. On the other hand, the blockades in the Black Sea of large producers hit at least 40% of the grain export chains, which, together with the prohibitions of Russia and China on fertilizers, will end up increasing food prices, which today suffer the effects of the inflation that ‘drags’ the world from the second half of 2021.

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Meanwhile, oil exceeds 100 dollars a barrel, the value of exports from countries concentrated in fuels has increased (sound familiar?), and the high prices of natural gas worldwide push a greater demand for coal, even from 2021, which helps to the fiscal deficits and current accounts of Latin America, hit today by the combination of historical corruption plus a pandemic.

Thus, Russia experiences a leadership as powerful and unpredictable as Stalin, while for NATO the rhetoric of ‘being present in war territory’ changes, because although there is not a foreign soldier supporting the Ukrainian army on its soil, weapons of the West and drones to supply local fighters constantly pass clandestine routes. The humanitarian corridor was really pushed by the cry of the 23% of Russians who have a family member or employee living in Ukraine.

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For long-term prospects (beyond the costly recovery that Europe will experience and other multiple negative effects or catastrophic scenarios), there will remain an exponential effect of this stormy chapter: The massification of clean energy and food technologies based on the need that it will imply replacing what the warring producers provide. Remember that Covid accelerated digital migration until this Meta-Crypto-NFT moment.

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As always, the world expectation is in the next move of the Russian government to respond to the forceful isolation to which its citizens have been subjected. According to experts, the real “hecatomb” comes with the restrictions and embargo on Russian hydrocarbons, which the Western allies are already executing, because according to those close to the regime, this will be the day that chemical and nuclear weapons arrive on the scene. Meanwhile the Ukrainian people continue to fight and flee to stay alive.

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Exporting will be more challenging, food will continue to be expensive, and oil will rise for who knows how long. It should not be believed that because it is an ocean away and the suffering of others comes through screens, it is far from war. I suggest preparing financially and as a business -just like 2020- for new challenges, transformations, and opportunities.

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And of course appeal to empathy helping the victims of war. Humanity, to counter the horror.

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