The Tokyo Olympic Games have been postponed to July 23rd, 2021.

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A fact that has only happened three times: 1916, 1940, and 1944. All related to 20th century World Wars. The latest ‘clue’ to confirm that the peak of COVID-19, the global fight against the virus, and a significant economic recession accompanying this process have officially begun.

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‘We are the chosen ones’ to face and survive an incredible historical moment: when global society, economy, culture, and consumption had to stop, confront, contain, and -hopefully- rethink, to continue taking care of what is truly important.

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Quite difficult times, also full of hope and reinvention. For you. For your business. For entrepreneurs. For the economy. For rulers. For the value system. For globalization. For our consciences. It is not the time for falter; it’s time to wash your hands and stay home.

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A grandiloquent economic pause with a cost as incredible as the virus per se. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley connected allies, academics, and unions to confirm what we feared: global GDP will contract at least 1% in 2020, a moment whose impact will manage to overcome - by far - the 2008 crisis.

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With 1/3 of global population inside their houses, the fear behind the exponential growth of cases and deaths, and the ease behind the contagion have made humanity speak: Health rules! And without our survival, there is no economy!

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Existentialism and Speculation determinate an imposed / voluntary quarantine that will manage to remain physically and emotionally connected through wifi; under two realities for governments, companies, and citizens, where cash flow will be king and achieving it will be the more significant challenge, to not let middle class, entrepreneurs and blue collar workers fade away.

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The reality of this pandemic reflects the existence (and shortcomings) of three types of health systems in the world.

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Those of countries that base their ability on social protection in exchange for taxes. Like Germany, France, or Spain and Italy… where the midst of death and collapse of a ‘Top-Notch’ health system, leave the hope of a summer full of tourists, in an area that lives in a significant part of the foreign visitors.

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There will be other countries where their health system is characterized by being robust. More hospitals, beds, doctors. Always under an ‘exclusive’ look, like areas of the United States where treatment for COVID-19 costs USD $35,000. Where it doesn’t matter how many health insurance people could have or afford, getting sick can be expensive (a lot).

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And other countries with a weak health system. A sum of corruption and inequality. Where inclusion exists, the vast majority can go to the doctor, and the most vulnerable rarely pay. Still, the conditions of the neediest are dangerously far from a minority that can afford hospitals more alike to Lenox Hill on Park Avenue and 77th.

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The pattern is clear: None of three systems can withstand a pandemic like the current one. Most of the global medical community agrees. While everyone is fighting the virus on their couches, doctors and nurses fights in the front line without stopping, all applause is not enough. Thanks, JuanCa -my older brother- for not resting.

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To this urgent reality, the current globalization model (sooner to be ‘outdated’) has been approached from two Macro Strategies: the first based on tackling COVID-19 under the premise that we will achieve immunity from contagion. That is, the more they have it (the faster), the economic pause will be shorter.

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In this scenario -WHO source- 2/3 of the global population could contract the virus, and each health system must assume the consequences, under the mortality metrics that this scenario reflects, with the support of the State. The life cost is immense. In Italy, it is almost 9% of the infected. It begins to be clear that as a strategy, it does not generate the expected result.

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The second Strategy starts from supporting the health system (physically and economically) and reducing the spread over time through voluntary or mandatory fourteen-day isolation, however for different epidemiologists could be forty (like the quarantine duh!), to cut the contagion curve/deaths. In China, they started at the beginning of their New Year holidays, and until this week, they went out again. Some Reality Check.

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A definite hit to the psyche, in a society tending to depression and domestic violence (WHO). However, remember that -according to Steven Pinker in “Enlightening Now”- historically, it will be the moments of higher difficulty that shows the best human values such as compassion, creativity, resilience, and love… of course.

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An isolation process that occurs between countries and economies that will mandatory have to become great benefactors, responding to the economic consequences of an unprecedented decision. From subsidizing and rescuing industries of all sizes, to giving food and shelter to the vulnerable, while supporting the health system. It’s not the time for corruption based on the urgency of political lords. Not this time!

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The businesses broke downs fear becomes inevitable, but countries (and their governments) forced by their social/health system reality versus spread levels, decided to play the ‘skin in the game’ taking its inhabitants to a form of confinement in their homes that mixes pedagogical with punitive.
So our contribution to fighting against COVID-19. Our joint cause. Our best way to win this invisible war, which we all know is about staying and not leaving home, ends up being mostly a mandatory invitation to ‘Back to Basics.’

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To reflect on the social, political, economic, cultural, environmental, and consumer context that surrounds it, on what it is doing more (or less), remembering the simplicity of beauty, value what was taken for granted, create, dream, and think about how to make greater prosperity that could be more fair -and at the same time progressive- with humankind and planet earth.

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However, and beyond the 1/3 worldwide vulnerable population, that keeping it alive will be State's obligation, Corporate commitment, and Citizen’s moral duty, this process of physical and mental confinement, so deep and challenging at the same time, has two faces:

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On the one hand, some have the income to sustain (themselves, their families, companies, employees, etc.) this moment in terms of cash with the respective cuts and readjustments; and on the other hand, a vast majority of informal workers, middle-class entrepreneurs, blue collar workers, and those who will end up pitifully unemployed. That is to say, those without cash flow.

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Quite a challenge... if takes into account that:

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1) except for the development and distribution of basic needs, the rest of the industries worldwide are at their minimum production/distribution.
2) the absence of physical commerce has huge relevancy in the commercialization of multiple categories and,
3) there are multiple value chains -from the complexity of confidential processes to remodeling a house through driving an Uber- who still cannot live in the sphere of homeworking.

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So it will be everyone's responsibility, as far as possible within their corporate and domestic subsistence plan to:

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1.    Supporting small businesses
(Remember that in a recession everything costs less, it could take advantage of it, in addition to contributing to a next exit from the economic moment: because only by 'moving the wheel of money' does confidence and consumption generate)
2.   Avoid overconsumption
(remember that they must reach to donate to the needy, sell at cost to the vulnerable, and avoid the panic of the 'empty shelf' in the middle class, and apparently fascinates to social networks fans)
And 3. Motivate job occupation
(remember that in times of low turnover you can plan, reinvent, drive, and change the future of a business, and apparently, the current context where virtualization will become massive is the ultimate 'melting pot')

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All this in a lifestyle where businesses and corporations that decide or impose to support homework must begin to understand an upcoming 'In-House' reality:

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Housework (where hygiene is mandatory), Parenting (which includes being a teacher and explaining to the little ones why they can't go out), and work are happening simultaneously. Changing schedules and dynamics to accommodate this moment is crucial. And some relief for many regardless of their level in the organization.

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There will be many who will have difficulties, some will be supported by their families again, some will have more resilience than others, some will share with others, and in the end, we will all get ahead together. From the COVID-19. From the recession. The changes that this moment will bring are immense, and like all 'Black Swan' without warning, it will be as transformative, dramatic, and positive at the same time.

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But now we must focus on today. Patience... enjoy your home, your loved ones, and have time to think and find yourself, don't just spend it on understanding what's behind, who conspired against us because we lose focus.

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On our discipline living today, the agility of governments, and the speed of science to find the cure, it depends that we go out (to the street and this historical moment) soon, and we can have a prosperous tomorrow.

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Thank you for your time.

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