In 2021, when reactivation ignites, businesses saw how ‘the house of cards fall’ thanks to a collapsed supply chain, Chinese ‘Zero Covid’ policies, the Russia-Ukraine war, and American hyper-consumerism, bringing an inflationary phenomenon that has governments, companies, and people interpreting their existence from expensiveness nowadays.

Arising more questions than answers. How long will the ‘rising’ trend last, what categories will down prices again, when will salaries catch up with the cost of living, how will this phenomenon impact the business plans of 2023, What’s the best strategy to keep consumers buying…

And a philosophical one: this inflation moment begins a ‘new capitalism chapter’ based on growing businesses without leaving dividends… as Jeremy Rifkin or Mariana Mazzucato have proposed from their expertise, which excites and scares equally, according to the vision of prosperity or position in inequity context that each person has faced.

According to USA, UK, and EU central banks, the inflationary slowdown will occur between October and Q1 2023, when interest rates slow down consumption, while some raw materials manage to lower prices globally, ruling out the de-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine according to Oxford Economics.

However, there are no reports about prices returning to normal, except for different state subsidies in basics such as O&G, which do not seem to continue until the end of the year. Rows of Europeans accumulating wood, or shops and monuments with minimal / off lights on preparing for winter, are part of today’s reality.

If 2020 and 2021 were about coping with a pandemic, in 2022 and 2023, the challenge seems to focus on a significant price jump of all existing products and services, changing how people of all SEL will face their reality again while governments and companies readapt their production models and workforce.

Missing to count a global recession that a ‘snowball effect’ promises for 2023, that according to a Yahoo! Finance survey with 1,500 CEOs globally a month ago, 60% confirms a great economic hit by Q1 2023, while for 15%, it has already started. Investor confidence declines, and currencies lose value.

With an information overload around inflation forecast, a ‘reality check window’ for the future could be tangible from cases as dissimilar and complex as Russia or Turkey:

Suppose that in January of this year, for every 100 units of money (Dollar, Pound, Euro…) worldwide, someone could buy 20 cups of coffee. By January 2023, the same amount will reach 16 units in developed countries and 12 in emerging markets.

It’s time to do the math carefully, knowing that you and your consumers will have less money to spend.

Welcome to a ‘Post Inflation’ World.

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