Imagine one world with no cows giving milk and dairy farmers outside cities and towns living from it… Now visualize a ‘parallel world’ where one in seven families has two of these bovines for daily sustenance, family feeding, and the consideration of another household member. That place exists 18 hours by plane from America.

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India is so distant, grandiloquent, and complex in distance, traditions, or prosperity building, not for nothing inflation doesn’t hit with the same global force (3.8% accumulated fiscal year, IMF), maintains international’s the highest GDP growth (6.8% by 2022 and 6.3% by 2023, IMF) in these confusing and unpredictable times, surpassing Japan by 2030 and ranking third in the world top economies according with different experts.

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With 1,417 billion inhabitants consuming 83 million metric tons of cow’s milk per year (followed by the European Union with 23); it’s not surprising that the average Indian diet includes 423 grams of dairy daily, the innovation scene multiplies, and New Delhi was the venue for the global meeting of the industry organized by the IDF (International Dairy Federation) to review challenges, opportunities, and solutions to guarantee its continuity and growth.

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Because livestock environmental urgency is a central issue, according to the 2021 Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, ‘the one billion cows used in the global meat (73%) and dairy (27%) industries, combined with other farmed animals, are responsible for releasing the methane equivalent to 3.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year, representing about 44% of the world’s anthropogenic methane’.

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This concern and others, like lactose intolerance or non-animal consumer growth, have promoted plant-based alternatives during the last decade, representing today 4.5% of category consumption compared to cow’s milk.

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It’s expected that by 2030 plant-based dairy alternatives will conquer 10% of global consumers, obtaining a terrific 71.8 billion dollars in industry value (Bloomberg), a remarkable number but far from the USD 1.3 trillion that the dairy industry is expected to be worth by that time, according to Statista.

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When the next decade arrives, there will be 8.6 billion people, with about 75% seeking milk regularly. Around 6.5 billion, 500 million more than FAO forecast; centralizing the global dairy industry future challenge in the convergence between increasing production, reducing environmental impact, developing better products, while guaranteeing fair payments to better-equipped farmers.

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The talks, cases, and innovations presented in a forum where 1,000 experts from 81 countries, including government agents, multilaterals, producers, unions, research centers, and academics followed these issues, where a conversation with three leaders from different positions in the industry can contextualize the next stage of a business as old as humanity itself.

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Caroline Emond (Canada) – Director General – https://fil-idf.org/

Since 1903, the International Dairy Federation has been leading research generating scientific and quality standards for mass-market dairy products, representing 75% of the industry globally. Caroline has paid particular attention to the sector evolution from the producer perspective.

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‘If we want to have a sector that grows steadily, we must guarantee producers, especially for the smallest ones, fair payment and the tools so that they can improve product quality and reduce the environmental impact’ confirming the need to mix ‘ancestral’ processes with technologies that guarantee agility and sustainability.

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When it comes to category per capita consumption decrease, like the United States case -from 0.62 to 0.49 daily between 2010 and 2020, USDA-, will be relevant to ‘remind people the benefits of milk taken for granted… that it’s natural, that cows eat the grass that humans cannot, that it has been here forever and nowadays in inflation times is one of the most nutritious and affordable foods for the majority’.

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Jayen Mehta (India) – Chief Operating Officer – https://www.amul.coop/

One of the first local companies founded the British independence and promoted the ‘White Revolution’ that turned the subcontinent into a leading global industry producer, today ratified as ‘The Taste of India’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXjlkLcqJC8 and the eighth largest dairy company in the world.

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For Jayen Mehta, who has worked in Amul for more than three decades, the Indian dairy industry’s success comes from a direct connection with the farmer and their empowerment, ‘we have 3,600,000 partners who deliver their product to us daily, 27 million liters of milk, all under the shadow and portfolio of a brand valued at 8 billion dollars’.

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Achieving this industry size has been a country effort, as one of the sectors beginning the economic independence, with more than 8 million milk collectors of all sizes, in a business model where the value chain is reduced… from farm to company, eliminating intermediate cooperatives, distributors, in addition to expanding direct sales channels.

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‘With this, we achieve that 80% of products’ gross margins -as in the Amul case- remains for the farmer; in other large producing countries such as the United States or New Zealand, it reaches 30% because cooperatives and channels keep another important piece.

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Under the reality of India, where dairy farming is primarily manual, automation should be achieved in the future with a business model that allows farmers to grow other foods, reducing livestock land use and creating vertical integration under the same distribution and brand. Amul sells frozen potatoes and samosas produced by their dairy farmers today, participating in 50 categories with more than 1,000 SKUs.

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Torsten Hemme (Germany) – CEO – https://ifcndairy.org/

With a global network of allies, this organization has dedicated itself since 2000 to understand the size and context of the dairy industry and its value chain, including consumption, production, price changes, and other data points within an industry with multiple formats, market moments, and edges.

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From the IFCN analysis, according to Torsten Hemme, 'The milk industry and its derivatives are more extensive than Apple and Microsoft, between farmers, distributors, companies and sales channels the sector is, directly and indirectly, related to a billion people'.

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Leaving a reflection on the carbon footprint and the social footprint of milk 'some think that leaving cow's milk will save the planet, but they don't see that it produces 2.5% of the total emissions, while in a world without this industry, the impact on rural land, production systems, and massive consumption would be hardly challenging to overcome.

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Regarding benefits, Hemme presents a divergent perspective 'milk is a pure product. Plant-Based products mix multiple processes and ingredients... A conventional burger is 100% beef, while a plant-based one is a 20-ingredient list. If the trend is purity and naturalness for the consumer, milk is the answer. The current roadmap of the industry makes it confident of achieving a 30% reduction in carbon footprint by 2030.

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The world without cows and their dairy products seems far away; it's more possible that humanity will have access to a variety of options that includes lab developments nowadays in R&D processes, solutions from multiple grains, animals, or fruits where chickpeas, camels, and bananas appear as emerging, cow's milk products with the highest quality and purity, expensive also, and massive versions of products with less supply chain footprint.

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Climate impact and new market preferences will confirm the winners in this race.

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PS. The best way to explore is to try… if one day you want to know about the thousands of 100% Indian dairy products, I recommend starting with six from the point of cultural and markets watcher, far from any gastronomic expertise:
- Masti, a salty milk with spices and condiments that seek to improve the digestive system. A complex taste for foreigners.
- Gulab Jamun is a dessert, fried balls made from milk with a delicious ghee syrup.
- Kulfi is a milk ice cream with less sweetness and includes cardamom. Quite popular and smooth.
- Paneer is the local version of cottage cheese, used in many recipes as a substitute for meat. Available at any Indian restaurant.
- Kessar Doodh, a milkshake with saffron that has immunological properties. Unmistakable flavor.
- Lassi is a version of natural yogurt with a texture as liquid and light as milk, intended to be a refreshing drink.

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