In futures studies, there are issues, such as technology appropriation or environmental impact, that can develop ‘multiple versions’ of tomorrow simultaneously, caused by socioeconomic and cultural differences between generations and regions. It seems like the Covid-19 vaccination will happen under this ‘parallel.’

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Analyzing 2021 scenarios with Abbas Arslan (who works for The Coca-Cola global HUB from Pakistan) by crossing variables related to a vaccination tipping point (2021/2022) and the speed of global economic recovery (fast + 10% GDP / slow - 10% GDP) we define four plausible futures, that would determine ‘Pandemic – lockdown – Recession’ loop second year:

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• The ‘Great Logistic’ where vaccination and economic recovery happen quickly. A year focused on planet immunization.
• Get to a ‘Herd Immunity’ as the economy moves fast and vaccination slows.
• A ‘Great Rebellion’ based on lack of vaccines and job/business opportunities. The worst-case scenario.
• And a ‘Track and lockdown’ scenario where vaccination advances, but the economy and new strains slows reactivation.

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When reviewing risk variables, Abbas’s conclusion was clear: the four vaccination scenarios / economic reactivation will be simultaneous during 2021 —justified on new strains, immunization rejection (25% of English, French, Germans, and Americans are not willing to receive the vaccine, Kantar), and the precarious economic situation of the vast majority of countries before the pandemic.

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It’s evident that the public and private sector decided to execute the ‘Great Logistic’ scenario, and after facing the first 200 million doses, there is a ‘reality check’: history shows that modern society has extensive experience in children’s mass vaccination, but it has never done so in adults and on a scale like this, where it must reach every corner of the planet.

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However, the UN confirms that 75% of vaccines administrated to date have been applied in ten countries (all developed), making evident the already known: long-term socioeconomic inequality will focus on health access, achieving that affluent segment will have guaranteed immunity before summer, and vulnerable population must wait until the end of 2021 or 2022.

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Of course, the pressure to achieve herd immunity through vaccines is everything. According to the IMF, at least 5% of 2021 global GDP growth will depend on immunization, one of every three news in the world it’s related to the topic, and it’s estimated that world countries will pay NINE TRILLION DOLLARS (USD 9,000,000,000,000) for the vaccination process.

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Yes. Creating, transporting, legalizing, storing, distributing, disseminating, applying, and monitoring the Covid-19 vaccine is as big a business as the Japanese and German economies combined. As big as the global food growing industry. An issue that was not part of the business system in Q3 / 2019.

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In Latin America, Chile exceeds two million vaccinated (reaching 10% of the population) and ranks as a global case equal to England and the United States and becomes the first emerging country to achieve immunity by the end of the year. Case success lies in the vaccine pre-sale, where they had the lead even against the Mexican left and the Brazilian right, in addition to efficient public-private logistics.

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The ‘rare bird’ amid a complex reality, taking into account that in Latin America corruption that, unfortunately, like Covid-19, is an endemic phenomenon … it is not a surprise. Still, it illuminates some of the ‘scandals’ that will make some of the headlines in the region in the months to come and how the political system will motivate that Latino pride at the possibility of being able to ‘jump the system’…

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Guilds with political influence jumping the line, vaccinations amid electoral proselytism (or ‘VV’ vote for vaccine), subcontracting with cost overruns in vaccination logistics, smuggling from boats to mules, parades, and celebration for the arrival of the vaccine in the best García Márquez oniric narrative.

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Making the public sector take ownership of vaccination should work very well in Singapore or Switzerland. Still, on this continent, it is about putting the only scientifically proven option against the pandemic in the hands of corruption and bureaucracy… and the reality is there: today, managing Covid-19 is a war against time, where every minute costs live, beyond believing if the disease and its impact exist.

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The State’s role in this area should be focus on guaranteeing justice, starting with people at the limit of poverty, informality, or not existing in the health systems. Everyone who cannot access vaccines, and those who are on the front line attending this war, from the doctors (the heroes of 2020) to the delivery men, always counting on the teachers, because beyond the facilities of virtuality, children and adolescents must return to socialize, and parents, or instead moms, can ‘take a break.’

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In the best mass consumption way, it's required that vaccination be led from the private sector, from people needs who end up accommodating budget to get a product, stakeholders (pharmacies and labs) will understand that somehow they should make it accessible as a Coca-Cola, always remembering the seven billion captive audiences.

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Today there is a lack of a production muscle that by the summer will end with various production plants that pharmaceutical companies develop at full speed in Mexico, Michigan, Mumbai, or Shenzhen... the commitments with shareholders, countries, and corporations (remember that more than 100 North American and European multinationals successfully negotiate with different local governments to be able to vaccinate their employees without having to wait in line) they are already in execution.

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And most importantly: give security to the citizen, from those concerned about not being able to choose the laboratory for the vaccine, its side effects, or whether through it the Illuminati will control the world. The uncertainty of the vaccine for some looks like the same disease, and if it's unsolved, it will be challenging to convince the skeptic.

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Because it is respectable who does not want to be vaccinated, everyone is the owner of their body. Still, until today, everything indicates that a marathon of vaccines is needed... a 'vaccinathon' to reach the next chapter in history, getting out of the ' Pandemic - Lockdown - Recession ' loop.

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In any case, prospectively, it's also explained that each scenario comes with risk and change factors, which in this case, fortunately, is about the decrease in cases and deaths steadily during the last weeks. WHO confirms that it is the result of the Following measures in countries like England; there is also talk of the possibility of having generated herd immunity in areas of the world such as India or people naturally immune to Covid-19. Simultaneous Positive Scenarios.

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